Projections of the East Asian Winter Monsoon under the IPCC AR5 Scenarios Using a Coupled Model:IAP_FGOALS

作     者：魏科 包庆 WEI Ke;BAO Qing

作者机构：Center for Monsoon System ResearchInstitute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid DynamicsInstitute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences 

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(Grant Nos.2010CB428603 and 2012CB417203) the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41175041) 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2012年第29卷第6期

页      码：1200-1214页

摘      要：Responses of the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） in future projections were studied based on two core future projections of CMIP5 in coordinated experiments with the IAP-coupled model FGOALS2-s. The projected changes of EAWM in climatology, seasonality, and interannual variability are reported here; the projections indicated strong warming in winter season. Warming increased with latitude, ranging from 1°C to 3°C in the Representative Concentration Pathways simulation RCP4.5 projection （an experiment that results in additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W m-2 in 2100） and from 4° to 9°C in the RCP8.5 projection （an experiment that results in additional radiative forcing of8.5 W m-2 in 2100）. The northerly wind along the East Asian coastal region became stronger in both scenarios, indicating a stronger EAWM. Accordingly, interannual variability （described by the standard deviation of temperature） increased around the South China Sea and lower latitudes and decreased over eastern China, especially in North China. The two EAWM basic modes, defined by the temperature EOF analysis over East Asia, were associated with the Arctic Oscillation （AO） and stratospheric polar vortex. The future projections revealed more total variance attributable to the secondary mode, suggesting additional influences from the stratosphere. The correlation between AO and the leading mode decreased, while the correlation between AO and the secondary mode increased, implying increased complexity regarding the predictability of EAWM interannual variations in future projections.

主 题 词：East Asian winter monsoon CMIP AO stratospheric polar vortex FGOALS 

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[070601] 0706[理学-大气科学类] 

核心收录：

D　O　I：10.1007/s00376-012-1226-5

馆 藏 号：203101724...