Simulation and Projection of Monso on Rainfall and Rain Patterns over Eastern China under Global Warming by RegCM3

作     者：Filippo GIORGI 

作者机构：International Centre for Theoretical PhysicsTriesteItaly 

基　　金：jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2009CB421407) the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (meteorology) (GYHY200806010) 

出 版 物：《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 (大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2009年第2卷第5期

页      码：308-313页

摘      要：The authors investigate possible changes of monsoon rainfall and associated seasonal (June-JulyAugust) anomaly patterns over eastern China in the late 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 emission scenario as simulated by a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) nested in a general circulation model (FvGCM/CCM3).Two sets of multi-decadal simulations are performed at 20-km grid spacing for present day and future climate *** show that the RegCM3 reproduces the mean rainfall distribution;however the evolution of the monsoon rain belt from South China to North China is not well *** the rain pattern classifications,RegCM3 overestimates the occurrence of Pattern 1 (excessive rainfall in northern China) and underestimates that of Pattern 2 (increased rainfall over the Huai River basin).Under future climate conditions,RegCM3 projects less occurrence of Pattern 1,more of Pattern 2,and little change of Pattern 3 (rainfall increase along the Yangtze River).These results indicate that there might be increased rainfall over the Huai-Yellow River area and reduced rainfall over North China in the future,while rainfall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin is not modified *** exist in the present study are also discussed.

主 题 词：climate change seasonal forecast monsoon rain patterns regional climate model eastern China 

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[070601] 0706[理学-大气科学类] 

D　O　I：10.1080/16742834.2009.11446816

馆 藏 号：203102349...