Comparison of different land-surface perturbation methods in short-range ensemble forecasts

作     者：Zhibo Gao Jiangshan Zhu Yan Guo Xiaodong Yan Xiujuan Wang Huoqing Li Shuwen Li Zhibo Gao;Jiangshan Zhu;Yan Guo;Xiaodong Yan;Xiujuan Wang;Huoqing Li;Shuwen Li

作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource EcologyBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe StormsInstitute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Jilin Province Technology Center for Meteorological Disaster PreventionChangchunChina Institute of Desert MeteorologyChina Meteorological AdministrationUrumqiChina 

基　　金：This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program on the Monitoring,Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disasters[grant number 2017YFC1502103] the Key Special Project for the Introducing Talents Team of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Guangzhou)[grant number GML2019ZD0601] the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41875136,41305099,and 41801019] 

出 版 物：《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 (大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2021年第14卷第3期

页      码：60-65页

摘      要：In order to compare the sensitivity of short-range ensemble forecasts to different land-surface parameters in the South China region,three perturbation experiments related to the land surface model(LSM),initial soil moisture(ISM),and land–atmosphere coupling coefficient(LCC)were designed,and another control experiment driven by the Global Ensemble Forecast System(GEFS)was also *** ensemble members were initiated at 0000 UTC each day,and integrated for 24 h for a total of 40 days from the period 1 April to 10 May 2019 based on the Weather Research and Forecasting *** results showed that the perturbation experiment of the LSM(LSMPE)had the largest ensemble spread,as well as the lowest ensemble-mean root-mean-square error among the three sets of land-surface perturbed experiments,which indicated that it could represent more uncertainty and less *** ensemble spread of the perturbation experiment of the ISM(ISMPE)was generally less than that of LSMPE but greater than that of LCCPE(the perturbation experiment of the LCC).In particular,although the perturbation of the LCC could not produce greater spread,it had an effective influence on the intensity of ***,the ensemble spread of all the land-surface perturbed experiments was smaller than that of GEFSPE(the control experiment).Therefore,in future,land-surface perturbations and atmospheric perturbations should be combined in the design of ensemble forecasting systems to make the model represent more uncertainties.

主 题 词：Short-range ensemble forecast Land-surface parameter South china region 

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[070601] 0706[理学-大气科学类] 

核心收录：

D　O　I：10.1016/j.aosl.2021.100045

馆 藏 号：203102773...