Construction of crash prediction model of freeway basic segment based on interactive influence of explanatory variables

作     者：王晓飞 李新伟 符锌砂 赵立萱 刘小峰 Wang Xiaofei;Li Xinwei;Fu Xinsha;Zhao Lixuan;Liu Xiaofeng

作者机构：华南理工大学土木与交通学院广州510641 广州市高速公路有限公司广州510288 广东省警官学院广州510230 广东省交通集团有限公司广州510623 

基　　金：The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51408229,51278202) the Program of the Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,Tongji University(No.K201204) the Science and Technology Program of Guangdong Communication Department(No.2013-02-068) 

出 版 物：《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》 (东南大学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2015年第31卷第2期

页      码：276-281页

摘      要：In order to improve the prediction precision of the safety performance function （SPF） of freeway basic segments, design and crash data of 640 segments are collected from different institutions. Three negative binomial （NB） regression models and three generalized negative binomial （GNB） regression models are built to prove that the interactive influence of explanatory variables plays an important role in fitting goodness. The effective use of the GNB model in analyzing the interactive influence of explanatory variables and predicting freeway basic segments is demonstrated. Among six models, the two models （one is the NB model and the other is the GNB model. ） which consider the interactive influence of the annual average daily traffic （AADT） and length are more reasonable for predicting results. Furthermore, a comprehensive study is carried out to prove that when considering the interactive influence, the NB and GNB models have almost the same fitting performance in estimating the crashes, among which the GNB model is slightly better for prediction performance.

主 题 词：crash freeway safety performance function( SPF ) interactive influence of explanatory variables generalized negative binomial (GNB) 

学科分类：0810[工学-土木类] 08[工学] 0805[工学-能源动力学] 0814[工学-地质类] 0812[工学-测绘类] 082301[082301] 0823[工学-农业工程类] 

核心收录：

D　O　I：10.3969/j.issn.1003-7985.2015.02.021

馆 藏 号：203617349...