Dynamics and Control of Infectious Diseases in Stochastic Metapopulation Models

作     者：Ariel Felix Gualtieri Juan Pedro Hecht 

作者机构：Facultad de Odontologia Universiclad de Buenos Aires 1122 Buenos Aires Argentina 

出 版 物：《Journal of Life Sciences》 (生命科学（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2011年第5卷第7期

页      码：503-508页

摘      要：The research on spatial epidemic models is a topic of considerable recent interest. In another hand, the advances in computer technology have stimulated the development of stochastic models. Metapopulation models are spatial designs that involve movements of individuals between distinct subpopulations. The purpose of the present work has been to develop stochastic models in order to study the transmission dynamics and control of infectious diseases in metapopulations. The authors studied Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible （SIS） and Susceptible-lnfected-Recovered （SIR） epidemic schemes, using the Gillespie algorithm, Computational numerical simulations were carried in order to explore the models. The results obtained show how the dynamics of transmission and the application of control measures within each subpopulation may affect all subpopulations of the system. They also show how the distribution of control measures among subpopulations affects the efficacy of these strategies. The dynamics of the stochastic models developed in the current study follow the trends observed in the classic deterministic designs. Also, the present models exhibit fluctuating behavior. This work highlights the importance of the spatial distribution of the population in spread and control of infectious diseases. In addition, it shows how chance could play an important role in these scenarios.

主 题 词：Epidemic dynamics and control stochastic metapopulation models SIS and SIR schemes. 

学科分类：07[理学] 08[工学] 070104[070104] 0701[理学-数学类] 081202[081202] 0812[工学-测绘类] 

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