Multimodel projections and uncertainties of net ecosystem production in China over the twenty-first century

作     者：Tao Wang Xin Lin Shushi Peng Nan Cong Shilong Piao 

作者机构：Laboratory for Glaciology and Environmental GeophysicsCNRS/Joseph Fourier-Grenoble University 38402 GrenobleFrance Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Science CEA CNRS UVSQ 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette France State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences College of Water SciencesBeijing Normal University Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University 

基　　金：supported by Chinese Ministry of Environmental Protection Grant(201209031) the National NaturalScience Foundation of China(31321061) 

出 版 物：《Chinese Science Bulletin》 (中国科学通报)

年 卷 期：2014年第59卷第34期

页      码：4681-4691页

摘      要：Ecosystems in China have been absorbing anthropogenic CO2 over the last three decades. Here, we assess future carbon uptake in China using models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project under four socio-economic scenarios. The average of China s carbon sink from 2006 to 2100 represented by multimodel mean net ecosystem production(NEP) is projected to increase(relative to averaged NEP from 1976 to 2005) in the range of 0.137 and 0.891 Pg C a-1across differentscenarios. Increases in NEP are driven by increases in net primary production exceeding increases in heterotrophic respiration, and future carbon sink is mainly attributed to areas located in eastern China. However, there exists a considerable model spread in the magnitude of carbon sink and model spread tends to be larger when future climate change becomes more intense. The model spread may result from intermodel discrepancy in the magnitude of CO2 fertilization effect on photosynthesis, soil carbon turnover time, presence of carbon-nitrogen cycle and interpretation of land-use changes. For better quantifying future carbon cycle, a research priority toward improving model representation of these processes is recommended.

主 题 词：中国东部地区 生态系统 生产量 不确定性 模式预测 二氧化碳 使用模型 净初级生产力 

学科分类：07[理学] 09[农学] 0903[农学-动物生产类] 0713[0713] 

核心收录：

D　O　I：10.1007/s11434-014-0613-y

馆 藏 号：203110476...