Evaluation and Projection of Temperature Extremes over China Based on CMIP5 Model

作     者：YAO Yao LUO Yong HUANG Jian-Bin 

作者机构：Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of EducationNanjing University of Information Science and Technology National Climate CenterChina Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Earth System Modeling/Center for Earth System ScienceTsinghua University 

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(No.2010CB950501-03) 

出 版 物：《Advances in Climate Change Research》 (气候变化研究进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2012年第3卷第4期

页      码：179-185页

摘      要：Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China are carried out with 8 model datasets from CMIF5. Compared with the NCEP reanalysis data, multi-model weighted ensemble is capable of reproducing the 8 temperature extreme indices and 20-yeax return values of annual maximum/minimum temperatures. The time correlation coefficients of all the 8 indices between multi-model ensemble and the reanalysis can reach a significance level of 0.10. The spatial correlation coefficient of 20-year return level of annual maximum/minimum temperatures is greater than 0.98. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, more extreme warm events and less cold events are expected over China in multi-model ensemble. By the middle of the 21st century, the heat wave duration index will be multiplied 2.6 times. At the end of the 21st century, the cold wave duration index will decrease 71%, and the 20-year return value will increase 4℃ in parts of China for the maximum/minimum temperatures.

主 题 词：CMIP5 temperature extremes RCP4.5 scenario return period projection 

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[070601] 0706[理学-大气科学类] 

D　O　I：10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00179

馆 藏 号：203138458...