Bias correction and projection of surface air temperature in LMDZ multiple simulation over central and eastern China

作     者：GUO Lian-Yi GAO Qian JIANG Zhi-Hong Laurent LI 

作者机构：Key Laboratory of Meteorological DisasterMinistry of EducationJoint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044Chin Jiaxiang County Meteorological ServiceJining 272400China Laboratory of Meteorological DynamicsUPMC/CNRSIPSLParis 75005France 

基　　金：Funding for this study was provided by the National Key R&D Program of China(2017YFA0603804)and the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41230528) 

出 版 物：《Advances in Climate Change Research》 (气候变化研究进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2018年第9卷第1期

页      码：81-92页

摘      要：Based on LMDZ4 daily temperature dataset,equidistant cumulative distribution function matching method(EDCDFm)and cumulative distribution function-transform method(CDF-t)are used to evaluate the ability of models in simulating extreme temperature over central and eastern *** future temperature change is then *** results show that the EDCDFm and CDF-t methods function effectively correct the spatial distribution of daily mean temperature and extreme temperature,significantly reduce the biases of the model simulation and effectively improve the capacity of models for spatial pattern of extreme ***,the cold bias of the CDF-t method in winter is obviously higher than that of the EDCDFm method,and the temperature change curve of the EDCDFm method is closer to the observation than that of the CDF-t *** projection based on the EDCDFm method shows that under the RCP4.5 emission scenario,the temperature in the study area shows a warming *** to 1986e2005,the mean temperature is projected to increase by 0.76,1.84,and 2.10℃during 2017e2036,2046e2065,and 2080e2099,*** spatial change for the mean,maximum,and minimum temperature in the three future periods have good consistency;warming in northern China is higher than that in the *** in temperature projection are large in the Tibetan Plateau and Sichuan *** days decrease significantly,especially in the Tibetan Plateau,and the frost days in the three periods decrease by more than 15,30,and 40 d,*** variation of heat wave indice is the smallest;the increase of heat wave is mainly in eastern China,and the increase in South China is more than 2 ***,under the global warming of 1.5℃and 2℃,the response characteristics of extreme temperature over central and eastern China are also *** results show that the mean temperature,maximum temperature and minimum temperature in the study area increase by more than 0.75℃under 1.5℃target

主 题 词：EDCDFm method CDF-T method Future temperature projection 1.5℃and 2℃global warming 

学科分类：07[理学] 

核心收录：

D　O　I：10.1016/j.accre.2018.02.003

馆 藏 号：203284922...