Uncertainties in Global Warming Projection

作     者：WEN Xin-Yu WANG Shao-Wu LUO Yong ZHAO Zong-Ci HUANG Jian-Bin 

作者机构：Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere StudiesDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking University National Climate CenterChinese Meteorological Administration Center for Earth System ScienceTsinghua University 

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41005035) the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDA05080801 and XDA05090104) 

出 版 物：《Advances in Climate Change Research》 (气候变化研究进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2012年第3卷第4期

页      码：229-232页

摘      要：According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report （AR4） [IPCC, 2007], the global mean surface temperature in 2100 is projected to be 1.1-6.4℃ higher than the 1980 1999 mean state, with the best estimation of increase at 1.8-4.0℃. It should be noted that this is the projected range of increase rather than the so-called uncertainties in global warming projection. Specifically, 1.1℃ and 1.8℃ are the lower limit and the best estimation for the B1 emissions scenario （the low emissions scenario）, respectively; while 4.0℃ and 6.4℃ are the corresponding upper limit and the best estimation for the A1F1 emissions scenario （the high emissions scenario）. Therefore,

主 题 词：不确定性 全球变暖 政府间气候变化专门委员会 投影 最佳估计 低排放 评估报告 地表温度 

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[070601] 0706[理学-大气科学类] 

D　O　I：10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00229

馆 藏 号：203307820...