Projection of future streamflow of the Hunza River Basin,Karakoram Range(Pakistan)using HBV hydrological model

作     者：Ayaz Fateh ALI XIAO Cun-de ZHANG Xiao-peng Muhammad ADNAN Mudassar IQBAL Garee KHAN 

作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric ScienceNorthwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China State Key Laboratory of Land Surface and Resource EcologyBeijing Normal UniversityBeejing 100875China Key Laboratory of land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid RegionsNorthwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 73o000China Department of Earth SciencesKarakoram International UniversityGilgit 15100Pakistan 

基　　金：the National Natural Science foundation of China(Grant Nos.41690145 and 41670158) 

出 版 物：《Journal of Mountain Science》 (山地科学学报（英文）)

年 卷 期：2018年第15卷第10期

页      码：2218-2235页

摘      要：Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdeling(HBV) Light model was used to evaluate the performance of the model in response to climate change in the snowy and glaciated catchment area of Hunza River Basin. The study aimed to understand the temporal variation of streamflow of Hunza River and its contribution to Indus River System(IRS). HBV model performed fairly well both during calibration(R2=0.87, Reff=0.85, PBIAS=-0.36) and validation(R2=0.86, Reff=0.83, PBIAS=-13.58) periods on daily time scale in the Hunza River Basin. Model performed better on monthly time scale with slightly underestimated low flows period during bothcalibration(R2=0.94, Reff=0.88, PBIAS=0.47) and validation(R2=0.92, Reff=0.85, PBIAS=15.83) periods. Simulated streamflow analysis from 1995-2010 unveiled that the average percentage contribution of snow, rain and glacier melt to the streamflow of Hunza River is about 16.5%, 19.4% and 64% respectively. In addition, the HBV-Light model performance was also evaluated for prediction of future streamflow in the Hunza River using future projected data of three General Circulation Model(GCMs) i.e. BCC-CSM1.1, CanESM2, and MIROCESM under RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 and predictions were made over three time periods, 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, using 1980-2010 as the control period. Overall projected climate results reveal that temperature and precipitation are the most sensitiveparameters to the streamflow of Hunza River. MIROC-ESM predicted the highest increase in the future streamflow of the Hunza River due to increase in temperature and precipitation under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios from 2010-2099 while predicted slight increase in the streamflow under RCP2.6 during the start and end of the 21 th century. However, BCCCSM1.1 predicted decrease in the streamflow under RCP8.5 due to decrease in temperature and precipitation from 2010-2099. However, Can ESM2 predicted 22%-88% increase in the streamflow under RCP4.5 from 2010-2099. The results of this study could

主 题 词：HBV Light model Hydrological modeling Hunza River Upper Indus Basin Snow and glacier-melt 

学科分类：08[工学] 081501[081501] 0815[工学-矿业类] 

核心收录：

D　O　I：10.1007/s11629-018-4907-4

馆 藏 号：203377440...