Projections of 2.0°C Warming over the Globe and China under RCP4.5

作     者：Zhang Ying 

作者机构：Nansen-Zhu International Research CentreInstitute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Climate Change Research Center(CCRC)Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China 

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2009CB421407) 

出 版 物：《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 (大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2012年第5卷第6期

页      码：514-520页

摘      要：The outputs of 17 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are employed to investigate the temporal and spatial features of 2.0°C warming of the surface temperature over the globe and China under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario. The simulations of the period 1860-1899 in the "historical" experiment are chosen as the baseline. The simulations for the 21st century in the RCP4.5 experiment are chosen as the future project. The multi-model ensemble mean (MME) shows that the global mean temperature would cross the 2.0°C warming threshold in 2047. Warming in most of the models would cross the threshold during 2030-2060. For local warming, high-latitude areas in the Northern Hemisphere show the fastest warming over the globe. Land areas warm substantially faster than the oceans. Most of the southern oceans would not exceed the 2.0°C warming threshold within the 21st century. Over China, surface warming is substantially faster than the global mean. The area-averaged warming would cross the 2.0°C threshold in 2034. Locally, Northwest China shows the fastest warming trend, followed by Central North China and Northeast China. Central China, East China, and South China are the last to cross the 2.0°C warming threshold. The diversity of the models is also estimated in this study. Generally, the spread among the models increases with time, and there is smaller spread among the models for the areas with the faster warming.

主 题 词：surface warming 2.0°C threshold RCP4.5 globe China 

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[070601] 070602[070602] 0706[理学-大气科学类] 

D　O　I：10.1080/16742834.2012.11447047

馆 藏 号：203704048...