Interannual Variability and Scenarios Projection of Sea Ice in Bohai Sea Part Ⅰ: Variation Characteristics and Interannual Hindcast

作     者：JIAO Yan HUANG Fei LIU Qingrong LI Ge LI Yaru YU Qingxi ZHAO Yiding JIAO Yan;HUANG Fei;LIU Qingrong;LI Ge;LI Yaru;YU Qingxi;ZHAO Yiding

作者机构：Key Laboratory of Physical OceanographyInstitute for Advanced Ocean StudyOcean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China North China Sea Marine Forecast CenterQingdao 266061China Laboratory for Ocean and Climate DynamicsPilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao)Qingdao 266237China North China Sea Data&Information ServiceQingdao 266061China 

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.U1706216 and 41575067) the National Key Research and Development Program(Nos.2015CB953904,2016YFC1402000,and 2016YFC 1401500) 

出 版 物：《Journal of Ocean University of China》 (中国海洋大学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2020年第19卷第2期

页      码：272-280页

摘      要：The Bohai Sea is one of the southernmost areas for sea ice formation in the northern *** ice disasters in this body of water severely affect marine activities and the safety of coastal *** this study,we analyze the variation characteristics of the sea ice in the Bohai Sea and establish an annual regression model based on predictable mode analysis *** results show the following:1)From 1970 to 2018,the average ice grade is(2.6±0.8),with a maximum of 4.5 and a minimum of *** Bay(LDB)has the heaviest ice conditions in the Bohai Sea,followed by Bohai Bay(BHB)and Laizhou Bay(LZB).Interannual variation is obvious in all three bays,but the linear decreasing trend is significant only in BHB.2)Three modes are obtained from empirical orthogonal function analysis,namely,single polarity mode with the same sign of anomaly in all of the three bays and strong interannual variability(82.0%),the north–south dipole mode with BHB and LZB showing an opposite sign of anomalies to that in LDB and strong decadal variations(14.5%),and a linear trend mode(3.5%).Critical factors are analyzed and regression equations are established for all the principal components,and then an annual hindcast model is established by synthesizing the results of the three *** model provides an annual spatial prediction of the sea ice in the Bohai Sea for the first time,and meets the demand of operational sea ice forecasting.

主 题 词：sea ice Bohai Sea variation characteristics interannual hindcast predictable mode analysis 

学科分类：07[理学] 0707[理学-海洋科学类] 

核心收录：

D　O　I：10.1007/s11802-020-4236-4

馆 藏 号：203879012...