摘要：The projections of climate change in the globe and East Asia by the NCC/IAPT63 model with the SRES A2 and A1B scenarios have been investigated in this paper. The resultspointed out a global warming of 3.6℃/100 yr and 2.5℃/100 yr for A2 and A1B during the 21stcentury, respectively. The warming in high and middle latitudes will be more obvious than that inlow latitudes, especially in the winter hemisphere. The warming of 5.1℃/100 yr for A2 and 3.6℃/100 yr for A1B over East Asia in the 21st century will be much higher than that in the globe. Theglobal mean precipitation will increase by about 4.3%/100 yr for A2 and 3.4%/100 yr for A1B in the21st century, respectively. The precipitation will increase in most parts of the low and highlatitudes and decrease in some regions of the subtropical latitudes. The linear trends of the annualmean precipitation anomalies over East Asia will be 9.8%/100 yr for A2 and 5.2%/100 yr for A1B,respectively. The drier situations will occur over the northwestern and southeastern parts of EastAsia. The changes of the annual mean temperature and precipitation in the globe for the 21st centuryby the NCC/IAP T63 model with SRES A2 and A1B scenarios are in agreement with a number of the modelprojections.

摘要：The projections of climate changes in China for the 21st century by about 40climate scenarios and multi-model ensembles have been investigated in this research. All the modelswith the different scenarios project a warming of 1.2℃ to 9.2℃ in China by the end of 21stcentury. Most of the projections point show the increasing of precipitation in China for the 21stcentury.

摘要：综合分析了土地利用与土地覆盖变化(LUCC)对全球气候影响研究的重要科学问题和国内外研究现状,在此基础上,考虑各学科的相互交叉、渗透和耦合等特点,提出并初步设计了土地利用变化对全球气候影响研究的星地一体化LUCC—气候—生态系统耦合研究技术方法体系,并就土地利用变化对全球气候影响的LUCC演变规律及动力学机制、LUCC影响生态系统与气候的机理与效应等重大科学问题的研究途径,以及星地一体化耦合研究技术体系在土地利用变化对全球气候影响研究中的应用技术路线进行了探讨。该研究途径的探讨与技术路线的设计,将有力支持下述科学目标的实现:①深入研究典型区、重要国家和全球3个尺度上的LUCC时空过程基本规律、驱动机制与区域差异及其气候/生态效应;②阐明人类活动和气候变化对LUCC过程的互馈机理,揭示大尺度LUCC过程对气候与陆地生态系统的作用机理;③构建多尺度LUCC及其气候/生态效应综合模拟平台,定量模拟未来不同情景下不同时空尺度LUCC变化趋势及其对气候与生态系统的影响,进而厘定大尺度LUCC通过引发温室气体收支变化与改变地表陆—气界面过程2个方面影响气候变化的贡献率;④提出未来应对LUCC对气候与生态系统影响的策略,为我国应对全球变化、实现可持续发展提供科学依据。