摘要：The high-resolution climate model Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) was used to project the changes in futureextreme precipitation and temperature over the Koshi River basin for use in impact assessments. Three outputs of the Quantifying Uncertaintiesin Model Prediction (QUMP) simulations using the Hadley Centre Couple Model (HadCM3) based on the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario were used to project the future climate. The projections were analysed for three time slices, 2011e2040 (near future), 2041e2070 (mid-century), and 2071e2098 (distant future). The results show an increase in the future frequency and intensity of climate extremes events such as dry days, consecutive dry days, and very wet days (95th percentile), with greater increases over the southern plains than in the mountainous area to the north. A significant decrease in moderate rainfall days (75th percentile) is projected over the middle (high) mountain and trans-Himalaya areas. Increases are projected in both the extreme maximum and extreme minimum temperature, with a slightly higher rate in minimum temperature. The number of warm days is projected to increase throughout the basin, with more rapid rates in the trans-Himalayan and middle mountain areas than in the plains. Warm nights are also projected to increase, especially in the southern plains. A decrease is projected in cold days and cold nights indicating overall warming throughout the basin.

摘要：The objective of this study was to use regression modelling, a form of statistical downscaling technique, to predict the daily rainfall occurrence and rainfall amounts for a small river basin, the upper Ping River basin (UPRB) in northern Thailand. Daily historic (1960e2005)rainfall and a number of daily reanalysis variables (NCEP/NCAR) were used to create regression models that estimate the probabilities of rainfall occurrence (wet days) and amounts (rainfall depth) at each of 29 rain gauge stations located in and around the UPRB. The regression models were calibrated using historic (1960e1989) data and validated using historic (1990e2005) data. Regression models were later applied to historic (1960e2005) GCM outputs (MPI-ESM-LR model) which were adjusted to correspond to the selected reanalysis variables using the Nested Bias Correction (NBC) technique. Rainfall occurrence and amounts were predicted for the periods 2006e2050 and 2051e2100 for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 scenarios. Results show that the effects of climate change vary considerably across the catchment, with significantly declines in both the number of wet days and rainfall depth in the wet- and especially the dry-season in the middle of the catchment but obviously increase slightly towards the northern part of the catchment. Since the stepwise regression was used to select the atmospheric variables to form the regression models for simulating rainfall occurrence and amount, different stations have their own predictors and can influence future rainfall to vary significantly between 29 rain gauge stations. If the top three predictors were selected to form the regression models for simulating rainfall occurrence and amount for all stations, the future rainfall characteristics possibly change and can be used to compare with those of presented in this study. It will show either atmospheric predictors or climate change scenarios would have more effect on future rainfall characteristics.

摘要：以北京为研究典型,基于MIKE basin在GIS平台上建立北京水资源优化配置模拟模型,尝试开展信息化、精细化、动态化的水资源配置研究。通过对"十二五"水资源规划条件下的水资源配置方案进行模拟计算与分析比较,发现模型应用于缺水型大城市能够取得较为合理的水量配置成果,具有较好的适用性,能进行不同水源条件的方案计算,可为水资源战略决策、规划配置及工程建设等提供科学依据,可为最严格的水资源管理提供技术支撑。

摘要：以MIKE basin软件为技术工具,建立论证范围内的水资源系统模拟模型。通过模型建立、数据输入、参数率定、模拟计算、成果输出整理等步骤及实例验证,结果表明该方法计算成果与实测径流和传统的典型年法误差较小,可以在水资源论证工作中进一步推广应用,为建设项目水资源论证提供技术支持。

摘要：重庆涪陵区龙潭水利工程为由并联、串联水库组成的复杂水库群,水资源配置难度较大,有必要借助数值模拟软件来完成。在Mike basin水资源配置模型的基础上进行编程计算,提出了用Mike basin模型计算多功能复杂水库群联合调度的方法,并计算了4种工况下工程运行对下游发电的影响。通过验证发现,该模型可以很好地模拟龙潭水利工程水库群调度现状。对Mike basin水资源配置模型存在的不足进行了分析,并提出了可行的解决方法,相关结论可为今后运用Mike basin解决水库群联合调度问题提供参考。

摘要：探讨MIKE basin基于COM/.NET平台提供的二次开发技术,通过对MIKE basin对象模型的掌握、对象的引用和获取以及宏助手的运用,扩展了MIKE basin的功能,实现了对MIKEbasin的二次开发。

摘要：在调查分析双柏县水资源情况的基础上,采用MIKEbasin水资源优化配置软件,对供水水源和用水单元分类概化,结合当地用水情况确定供需水的优先级并制定水资源配置规则,在MIKEbasin软件平台上构建了双柏县水资源配置模型。对双柏县水资源进行供需平衡分析,以确定流域的缺水程度,为流域水资源配置提供依据。

摘要：为寻找准确便捷的综合利用水库兴利计算的方法,采用Mike basin构建水库水量平衡模型,研究杭州市某中型水库兴利调度的计算。介绍了所建立模型水资源系统概化情况及属性数据的设置情况,分析了兴利计算思路。最后,进行Mike basin模型的水库水量平衡计算,确定了灌溉死水位及发电控制线,得到了满足兴利要求的水平衡结果。通过计算研究,采用Mike basin进行综合利用水库水量平衡计算的结果是直观便于分析的,计算是便捷的。

摘要：Iranian Plateau between the Lesser Caucasus-Alborz Mountains on the north and Zagros-Makran Ranges on the south has several inter-mountainous depressions which were filled by Quaternary deposits. Geologic evidence implied that, the last marine conditions in some depressions such as the Dasht-e Kavir, Dasht-e Lut and Jazmourian basins, had been changed to land conditions in middle Miocene. Based on shape and elevation of the Dasht-e Kavir, Dasht-e Lut and Jazmourian plains related to sea level and geomorphology of Iranian plateau, three semi-connective artificial lakes can be constructed upon the mentioned plains by consideration of many geologic and geotechnical parameters. These artificial lakes can feed by pumping of water from Oman Sea and form a triple artificial bay which they must be connected together by two gated straits. Therefore, a possible morphotectonic idea with many advantages has suggested that it can be present as an international geotechnologic design. This design has the important environmental impacts which can be changed desert to lake sedimentary basins.

摘要：1曲靖经济区水资源开发利用现状云南省曲靖市经济区（特指麒麟、沾益、陆良3个区县的南盘江沾曲陆段）区域内人均水资源量892m^3／人，仅为云南省人均水资源量的17．8％，也只有全国平均水平的40．2％，属水资源紧张地区，现状水资源开发利用程度已达到41．7％。在云南省委省政府提出“与全国同步实现建设小康社会宏伟目标”、“工业强省倍增计划”等的发展战略，以及曲靖市提出“珠江源大城市”和“曲靖工业强市”战略的实施，城市生活和工业需水量将快速增长，水资源的供需矛盾越来越突出，研究南盘江上游的曲靖经济区水资源配置是十分紧迫和必要的。