摘要：Combination antiretroviral therapy(ART)reduced AIDS-related mortality and increased survival among patients living with HIV by interrupting HIV replication,enhancing immune recovery,and preventing the onset of opportunistic infections[1].In China,ART has rapidly been scaled up since the beginning of the National Free Antiretroviral Treatment Program(NFATP)in 2003[2].By the end of 2016,489,411 individuals diagnosed with HIV were receiving free antiretroviral treatment in *** is firmly committed to reducing overall AIDS-related mortality and HIV incidence within the ***,similar to other low-and middle-income countries,the NFATP is challenged by high mortality and attrition shortly after patients initiate ART[3].

摘要：Objective: The incidence and mortality rates for cutaneous melanoma (CM) have increased markedly in the last few years. As such, the aim of this study was to forecast their progression in Spain up until 2022. Design: A prospective epidemiological study using the Miamod technique. The primary data source was the mortality statistics released by the National Statistics Institute. Study selection: The MIAMOD method was used. Data extraction: Cases of death due to general and melanoma-related mortality in Spain between 1998 and 2007. Results: In men, the incidence is expected to increase from 11.85 (adjusted: 8.52) to 14.79 (adjusted: 9.43) per 100,000 inhabitants over the period 1998-2022. Similarly, the mortality is expected to increase slightly from 5.84 (adjusted: 4.12) to 7.19 (adjusted: 4.49) per 100,000 inhabitants, and the prevalence from 73.72 (adjusted: 52.31) to 95.46 (adjusted: 60.02) per 100,000 inhabitants over the same period. In women, the incidence is expected to increase from 3.79 (adjusted: 3.04) to 6.46 (adjusted: 4.21) per 100,000 inhabitants between 1998 and 2022, although this increase is not statistically significant. The mortality is expected to increase from 1.67 (adjusted: 1.24) to 2.98 (adjusted: 1.86) per 100,000 inhabitants, and the prevalence from 50.04 (adjusted: 44.54) to 84.81 per (adjusted: 56.18) 100,000 inhabitants over the same period. Conclusions: Primary and secondary prevention programs for this disease must be maintained.

摘要：This paper gives an overview of the Lee Carter method and reiterates the feasibility of using it to construct mortality forecast for the population data. In a first step, the model is fitted in a traditional way and used to extrapolate forecast of the time-varying mortality index. The observed pattern of the mortality rates shows a different variability at different ages, highlighting that the homoscedasticity hypothesis is quite unrealistic. Thus, in a second step, the paper aims to produce more reliable mortality forecasting, focusing on the errors in the estimation of the model parameters. The robustness of the estimated parameter is analysed throughout an experimental strategy which allows to assess the robustness of the Lee Carter model by inducing the errors to satisfy the homoscedasticity hypothesis. The graphical and numerical results are tested by means of a comparison in terms of prediction accuracy.

摘要：目的:比较围拔管期应用两种剂量枸橼酸咖啡因在早产儿(胎龄<30周)拔管中的利弊。设计:采用多中心、随机、双盲临床试验。机构:选用澳洲4个3级新生儿单位。患者:胎龄<30周的早产儿,通气时间超过48h。

摘要：背景:前列腺癌根治术标本的手术切缘阳性(positive surgical margins,PSMs)为辅助放疗常用的指标,同时可用来衡量手术的质量。然而,PSMs和前列腺癌特异性死亡率(prostate cancer-specific mortality,CSM)之间的关系尚不清楚。目的:通过调整固定和随时间变化的参数分析PSMs与CSM之间的关联。设计。