摘要：The outputs of 17 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are employed to investigate the temporal and spatial features of 2.0°C warming of the surface temperature over the globe and China under the Representative Concentration Pathways (rcp) 4.5 scenario. The simulations of the period 1860-1899 in the "historical" experiment are chosen as the baseline. The simulations for the 21st century in the rcp4.5 experiment are chosen as the future project. The multi-model ensemble mean (MME) shows that the global mean temperature would cross the 2.0°C warming threshold in 2047. Warming in most of the models would cross the threshold during 2030-2060. For local warming, high-latitude areas in the Northern Hemisphere show the fastest warming over the globe. Land areas warm substantially faster than the oceans. Most of the southern oceans would not exceed the 2.0°C warming threshold within the 21st century. Over China, surface warming is substantially faster than the global mean. The area-averaged warming would cross the 2.0°C threshold in 2034. Locally, Northwest China shows the fastest warming trend, followed by Central North China and Northeast China. Central China, East China, and South China are the last to cross the 2.0°C warming threshold. The diversity of the models is also estimated in this study. Generally, the spread among the models increases with time, and there is smaller spread among the models for the areas with the faster warming.

摘要：In this study,projected changes in the future climate conditions for the Middle EasteNorth Africa domain over the 21st century have been *** simulations with the COSMO-CLM model have been conducted respectively,at a spatial resolution of 0.44
and 0.22
,over the period 1979e2100,employing the IPCC rcp4.5 *** and boundary conditions have been derived by the global model *** main aim of the work is to provide regional climate projections for this area,widening the range of the data already available,yet with higher resolution,useful for many applications,especially as an input for the impact *** two different resolutions have been employed in order to quantify the differences due to the spatial scale effects,comparing the results also with the driving global *** projections show a significant warming expected over the whole area considered at the end of the 21st century,along with a reduction in precipitation,which is particularly evident over the western part of the *** projections depend on the horizontal resolution,suggesting the need for additional simulations at higher resolution,especially for a proper representation of extreme weather events.

摘要：A 151-year (1950e2100) dynamical downscaling simulation over East Asia is conducted by using the Regional Climate Model RegCM4.4 at 25 km grid spacing, which is nested within CSIRO-Mk3.6.0. Climate changes over China during the 21st century under the rcp4.5 scenario from CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 and RegCM4.4 are analyzed. Both simulations project that continuous warming with large regional variations will occur in the future. The two simulations obtain similar inter-annual fluctuations of regional average warming, with RegCM4.4 obtaining somewhat smaller values than CSIRO-Mk3.6.0. Projected precipitation changes are even more regionally variable than temperature changes. In western China, both models project increased precipitation, while the projections from two models show different regional details in eastern China. In both simulations, projected annual mean precipitation on a national scale does not change significantly due to the contrast changes between dry and wet seasons. To analyze uncertainties of the projected climate change in China, the simulation of RegCM4.4 is compared with a previous simulation of the RegCM3 at the same horizontal resolution. The overall consistency in precipitation change between RegCM3 and RegCM4.4 is projected across western China, while inconsistency is identified in most of eastern China.