摘要：Lumbar degeneration leads to changes in geometry and density distribution of vertebrae,which could further influence the mechanical property and *** study aimed to quantitatively describe the variations in shape and density distribution for degenerated vertebrae by statistical models,and utilized the specific statistical shape model(SSM)/statistical appearance model(SAM)modes to assess compressive strength and fracture *** detailed SSM and SAM were developed based on the 75 L1 vertebrae of elderly men,and their variations in shape and density distribution were quantified with principal component(PC)*** vertebrae were classified into mild(n=22),moderate(n=29),and severe(n=24)groups according to the overall degree of *** computed tomography-based finite element analysis was used to calculate compressive strength for each L1 vertebra,and the associations between compressive strength and PC modes were evaluated by multivariable linear regression(MLR).Moreover,the distributions of equivalent plastic strain(PEEQ)for the vertebrae assigned with the first modes of SSM and SAM at mean±3SD were *** Leave-One-Out analysis showed that our SSM and SAM had good performance,with mean absolute errors of 0.335±0.084 mm and 64.610±26.620 mg/cm3,respectively.A reasonable accuracy of bone strength prediction was achieved by using four PC modes(SSM 1,SAM 1,SAM 4,and SAM 5)to construct the MLR ***,the PEEQ values were more sensitive to degeneration-related variations of density distribution than those of *** density variations may change the deformity type(compression deformity or wedge deformity),which further affects the fracture *** models can identify the morphology and density variations in degenerative vertebrae,and the SSM/SAM modes could be used to assess compressive strength and fracture *** above findings have implications for assisting clinicians in pathological dia