摘要：For unacceptable computational efficiency and accuracy on the probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes,this paper proposed multi-extremum response surface method(MERSM).MERSM model was established based on quadratic polynomial function by taking extremum response surface model as the sub-model of multi-response surface *** dynamic probabilistic analysis of an aeroengine turbine blisk with two components,and their reliability of deformation and stress failures was obtained,based on thermal-structural coupling technique,by considering the nonlinearity of material parameters and the transients of gas flow,gas temperature and rotational *** results show that the comprehensive reliability of structure is 0.9904 when the allowable deformations and stresses of blade and disk are 4.78×10–3 m and 1.41×109 Pa,and 1.64×10–3 m and 1.04×109 Pa,***,gas temperature and rotating speed severely influence the comprehensive reliability of *** the comparison of methods,it is shown that the MERSM holds higher computational precision and speed in the probabilistic analysis of turbine blisk,and MERSM computational precision satisfies the requirement of engineering *** efforts of this study address the difficulties on transients and multiple models coupling for the dynamic probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes.