摘要：Assessment of the nitrogen （N） balance and its long-term trend is necessary for management practices because of the negative environmental effects caused by an imbalance of reactive N in grassland ecosystems. In this study, we designed a module for the IAP-N （Improving Anthropogenic Practices of managing reactive Nitrogen） model to enable it to assess the N budget of regional grasslands. The module was developed to quantify the individual components of the N inputs and outputs for grassland ecosystems using livestock and human populations, grassland area, and fossil-energy consumption data as the model inputs. In this paper, the estimation approaches for individual components of N budget, data acquisition, and parameter selection are described in detail. The model was applied to assess the N budget of Inner Mongolia in 2006 at the county scale. The simulation results show that the most important pathway of N outputs from the grassland was livestock intake. The N output from livestock intake was especially large in the middle of Inner Mongolia. Biological fixation, atmospheric deposition, and livestock excreta deposition were comparably important for the N inputs into the grassland. The N budget for Inner Mongolia grassland in 2006 was -1.7×10 8 ±0.6×10 8 kg. The case study for Inner Mongolia shows that the new grassland module for the IAP-N model can capture the characteristics of the N budget in a semiarid grassland.

摘要：Responses of the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） in future projections were studied based on two core future projections of CMIP5 in coordinated experiments with the IAP-coupled model FGOALS2-s. The projected changes of EAWM in climatology, seasonality, and interannual variability are reported here; the projections indicated strong warming in winter season. Warming increased with latitude, ranging from 1°C to 3°C in the Representative Concentration Pathways simulation RCP4.5 projection （an experiment that results in additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W m-2 in 2100） and from 4° to 9°C in the RCP8.5 projection （an experiment that results in additional radiative forcing of8.5 W m-2 in 2100）. The northerly wind along the East Asian coastal region became stronger in both scenarios, indicating a stronger EAWM. Accordingly, interannual variability （described by the standard deviation of temperature） increased around the South China Sea and lower latitudes and decreased over eastern China, especially in North China. The two EAWM basic modes, defined by the temperature EOF analysis over East Asia, were associated with the Arctic Oscillation （AO） and stratospheric polar vortex. The future projections revealed more total variance attributable to the secondary mode, suggesting additional influences from the stratosphere. The correlation between AO and the leading mode decreased, while the correlation between AO and the secondary mode increased, implying increased complexity regarding the predictability of EAWM interannual variations in future projections.

摘要：This study investigated the impact of different verification-area designs on the sensitive areas identified using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） method for tropical cyclone targeted *** sensitive areas identified using the first singular vector （FSV） method,which is the linear approximation of CNOP,were also investigated for *** analyzing the validity of the sensitive areas,the proper design of a verification area was *** cyclone Rananim,which occurred in August 2004 in the northwest Pacific Ocean,was *** sets of verification areas were designed;one changed position,and the other changed both size and *** CNOP and its identified sensitive areas were found to be less sensitive to small variations of the verification areas than those of the FSV and its sensitive *** larger variations of the verification area,the CNOP and the FSV as well as their identified sensitive areas changed *** terms of reducing forecast errors in the verification area,the CNOP-identified sensitive areas were more beneficial than those identified using *** design of the verification area is important for cyclone *** verification area should be designed with a proper size according to the possible locations of the cyclone obtained from the ensemble forecast *** addition,the development trend of the cyclone analyzed from its dynamic mechanisms was another *** the general position of the verification area was determined,a small variation in size or position had little influence on the results of CNOP.

摘要：The reproducibility and future changes of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon were analyzed based on the simulations and projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） scenario in which anthropogenic emissions continue to rise throughout the 21 st century （i.e. RCP8.5） by all realizations from four Chinese models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5）. Delayed onset of the monsoon over the Arabian Sea was evident in all simulations for present-day climate, which was associated with a too weak simulation of the low-level Somali jet in May. A consistent advanced onset of the monsoon was found only over the Arabian Sea in the projections, where the advanced onset of the monsoon was accompanied by an increase of rainfall and an anomalous anticyclone over the northern Indian Ocean. In all the models except FGOALS-g2, the enhanced low-level Somali jet transported more water vapor to the Arabian Sea, whereas in FGOALS-g2 the enhanced rainfall was determined more by the increased wind convergence. Furthermore, and again in all models except FGOALS-g2, the equatorial SST warming, with maximum increase over the eastern Pacific, enhanced convection in the central West Pacific and reduced convection over the eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent region, which drove the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western Indian Ocean. In contrast, in FGOALS-g2, there was minimal （near-zero） warming of projected SST in the central equatorial Pacific, with decreased convection in the central West Pacific and enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent. The broader-scale differences among the models across the Pacific were related to both the differences in the projected SST pattern and in the present-day simulations.

摘要：In this paper, the first version of a new Arctic Ocean circulation and thermodynamic sea-ice model is presentedby the authors based on the framework of a twenty-layer World Oceanic general circulation model developed byZhang et al. in 1994. The model's domain covers the Arctic Ocean and Greenland-Norwegian Seas with the horizontal resolution of 200 km×200 km on a stereographic projection plane. In vertical, the model uses the Eta-coordinate(Sigma modified to have quasi-horizontal coordinate surfaces) and has ten unevenly-spaced layers to cover the deepest water column of 3000 m. Two 150-year integrations of coupling the ocean circulation model with the sea-icemodel have been performed with seasonally cyclic surface boundary conditions. The only difference between the tWoexperiments is in the model's geography. Some preliminary analyses of the experimental results have been done focused on the following aspects: (1) surface layer temperature, salinity and current; (2) the' Atlantic Layer'; (3)sea-ice cover and its seasonal variation. In comparison with the available observational data, these results are acceptable with reasonable accuracy.

摘要：Potential changes in precipitation extremes in July–August over China in response to CO 2 doubling are analyzed based on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models （20C3M） experiment and the 1% per year CO 2 increase experiment （to doubling） （1pctto2x） of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project （CMIP3）. Evaluation of the models’ performance in simulating the mean state shows that the majority of models fairly reproduce the broad spatial pattern of observed precipitation. However, all the models underestimate extreme precipitation by ～50%. The spread among the models over the Tibetan Plateau is ～2–3 times larger than that over the other areas. Models with higher resolution generally perform better than those with lower resolutions in terms of spatial pattern and precipitation amount. Under the 1pctto2x scenario, the ratio between the absolute value of MME extreme precipitation change and model spread is larger than that of total precipitation, indicating a relatively robust change of extremes. The change of extreme precipitation is more homogeneous than the total precipitation. Analysis on the output of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 （GFDL-CM2.1） indicates that the spatially consistent increase of surface temperature and water vapor content contribute to the large increase of extreme precipitation over contiguous China, which follows the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. Whereas, the meridionally tri-polar pattern of mean precipitation change over eastern China is dominated by the change of water vapor convergence, which is determined by the response of monsoon circulation to global warming.

摘要：Projections of future precipitation change over China are studied based on the output of a global AGCM, ECHAM5, with a high resolution of T319 （equivalent to 40 km）. Evaluation of the model’s performance in simulating present-day precipitation shows encouraging results. The spatial distributions of both mean and extreme precipitation, especially the locations of main precipitation centers, are reproduced reasonably. The simulated annual cycle of precipitation is close to the observed. The performance of the model over eastern China is generally better than that over western China. A weakness of the model is the overestimation of precipitation over northern and western China. Analyses on the potential change in precipitation projected under the A1B scenario show that both annual mean precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation would increase significantly over southeastern China. The percentage increase in extreme precipitation is larger than that of mean precipitation. Meanwhile, decreases in mean and extreme precipitation are evident over the southern Tibetan Plateau. For precipitation days, extreme precipitation days are projected to increase over all of China. Both consecutive dry days over northern China and consecutive wet days over southern China would decrease.

摘要：To reveal the steric sea level change in 20th century historical climate simulations and future climate change projections under the IPCC＇s Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 （RCP8.5） scenario, the results of two versions of LASG/IAP＇s Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS） are analyzed. Both models reasonably reproduce the mean dynamic sea level features, with a spatial pattern correlation coefficient of 0.97 with the observation. Characteristics of steric sea level changes in the 20th century historical climate simulations and RCPS.5 scenario projections are investigated. The results show that, in the 20th century, negative trends covered most parts of the global ocean. Under the RCPS.5 scenario, global-averaged steric sea level exhibits a pronounced rising trend throughout the 21st century and the general rising trend appears in most parts of the global ocean. The magnitude of the changes in the 21st century is much larger than that in the 20th century. By the year 2100, the global-averaged steric sea level anomaly is 18 cm and 10 cm relative to the year 1850 in the second spectral version of FGOALS （FGOALS-s2） and the second grid-point version of FGOALS （FGOALS-g2）, respectively. The separate contribution of the thermosteric and halosteric components from various ocean layers is further evaluated. In the 20th century, the steric sea level changes in FGOALS-s2 （FGOALS-g2） are largely attributed to the thermosteric （halosteric） component relative to the pre-industrial control run. In contrast, in the 21st century, the thermosteric component, mainly from the upper 1000 m, dominates the steric sea level change in both models under the RCPS.5 scenario. In addition, the steric sea level change in the marginal sea of China is attributed to the thermosteric component.

摘要：Improving numerical forecasting skill in the atmospheric and oceanic sciences by solving optimization problems is an important issue. One such method is to compute the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP), which has been applied widely in predictability studies. In this study, the Differential Evolution(DE) algorithm, which is a derivative-free algorithm and has been applied to obtain CNOPs for exploring the uncertainty of terrestrial ecosystem processes, was employed to obtain the CNOPs for finite-dimensional optimization problems with ball constraint conditions using Burgers' equation. The aim was first to test if the CNOP calculated by the DE algorithm is similar to that computed by traditional optimization algorithms, such as the Spectral Projected Gradient(SPG2) algorithm. The second motive was to supply a possible route through which the CNOP approach can be applied in predictability studies in the atmospheric and oceanic sciences without obtaining a model adjoint system, or for optimization problems with non-differentiable cost functions. A projection skill was first explanted to the DE algorithm to calculate the CNOPs. To validate the algorithm, the SPG2 algorithm was also applied to obtain the CNOPs for the same optimization problems. The results showed that the CNOPs obtained by the DE algorithm were nearly the same as those obtained by the SPG2 algorithm in terms of their spatial distributions and nonlinear evolutions. The implication is that the DE algorithm could be employed to calculate the optimal values of optimization problems, especially for non-differentiable and nonlinear optimization problems associated with the atmospheric and oceanic sciences.

摘要：Three sources of uncertainty in model projections of precipitation change in China for the 21st century were separated and quantified: internal variability,inter-model variability,and scenario *** from models involved in the third phase and the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP3 and CMIP5) were compared to identify improvements in the robustness of projections from the latest generation of *** significant differences were found between CMIP3 and CMIP5 in terms of future precipitation projections over China,with the two datasets both showing future *** uncertainty can be attributed firstly to internal variability,and then to both inter-model and internal *** analysis revealed that the uncertainty in CMIP5 models has increased by about 10%–60% with respect to CMIP3,despite significant improvements in the latest generation of *** increase is mainly due to the increase of internal variability in the initial decades,and then mainly due to the increase of inter-model variability thereafter,especially by the end of this *** change in scenario uncertainty shows no major role,but makes a negative contribution to begin with,and then an increase later.