摘要：A careful study on the integral properties of the primitive hydrostatic balance equations for baroclinic atmosphere is carried out, and a new scheme todesign the global adiabatic model of atmospheric dynamics ispresented. This scheme includes a method of weighted equal-areamesh and a fully discrete finite difference method with quadraticand linear conservations for solving the primitive equationsystem. Using this scheme, we established a new dynamical corewith adjustable high resolution acceptable to the availablecomputer capability, which can be very stable without anyfiltering and smoothing. Especially, some important integralproperties are kept unchanged, such as the anti-symmetries of thehorizontal advection operators and the vertical convectionoperator, the mass conservation, the effective energy conservationunder the standard stratification approximation, and so on. Somenumerical tests on the new dynamical core, respectively regardingits global conservations and its integrated performances inclimatic modeling, incorporated with the physical packagesfrom the Community Atmospheric Model Version 2 (CAM2) of NationalCenter for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), are included.

摘要：The focus of the research work presented in this article is the design of an industrial plant devoted to produce different types of hazelnuts-based *** industrial plant design is initially based on a traditional approach(production process flow charts analysis and plant layout study)and it is then supported by a simulation model mainly used to investigate the system behavior in different operative *** industrial plant simulation model(called HAZIMUT,HAZelnuts Industrial plant design and man-agement based on advanced simulation Models Utilization)recreates the entire hazelnuts production process(based on nine different production lines).The HAZIMUT simulation model is used to evaluate the effects—caused by multiple changes in the production lines capacities—on multiple performance measures based on machines levels utilization,work in process and production system *** simulation results show how variations in production lines capacities generate an over-reaction of the system with major changes in some of the performance measures therefore stressing the importance to use the HAZIMUT simulator to tune the system correctly to improve the overall plant performances.

摘要：Future potential sea level change in the South China Sea （SCS） is estimated by using 24 CMIP5 models under different representative concentration pathway （RCP） scenarios. By the end of the 21st century （2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005）, the multimodel ensemble mean dynamic sea level （DSL） is projected to rise 0.9, 1.6, and 1.1 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a total sea level rise （SLR） of 40.9, 48.6, and 64.1 cm in the SCS. It indicates that the SCS will experience a substantial SLR over the 21st century, and the rise is only marginal larger than the global mean SLR. During the same period, the steric sea level （SSL） rise is estimated to be 6.7, 10.0, and 15.3 cm under the three scenarios, respectively, which accounts only for 16%, 21% and 24% of the total SLR in this region. The changes of the SSL in the SCS are almost out of phase with those of the DSL for the three scenarios. The central deep basin has a slightly weak DSL rise, but a strong SSL rise during the 21st century, compared with the north and southwest shelves.

摘要：Evaluating the projection capability of climate models is an important task in climate model development and climate change studies. The projection capability of the Beijing Climate Center （BCC） Climate System Model BCC CSM1.0 is analyzed in this study. We focus on evaluating the projected annual mean air temperature and precipitation during the 21st century under three emission scenarios （Special Report on Emission Scenarios （SRES） B1, A1B, and A2） of the BCC_CSM1.0 model, along with comparisons with 22 CMIP3 （Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3） climate models. Air temperature averaged both globally and within China is projected to increase continuously throughout the 21st century, while precipitation increases intermittently under each of the three emission scenarios, with some specific temporal and spatial characteristics. The changes in globally-averaged and China-averaged air temperature and precipitation simulated by the BCC_CSM1.0 model are within the range of CMIP3 model results. On average, the changes of precipitation and temperature are more pronounced over China than over the globe, which is also in agreement with the CMIP3 models. The projection capability of the BCC_CSM1.0 model is comparable to that of other climate system models. Furthermore, the results reveal that the climate change response to greenhouse gas emissions is stronger over China than in the global mean, which implies that China may be particularly sensitive to climate change in the 21st century.

摘要：The reproducibility and future changes of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon were analyzed based on the simulations and projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） scenario in which anthropogenic emissions continue to rise throughout the 21 st century （i.e. RCP8.5） by all realizations from four Chinese models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5）. Delayed onset of the monsoon over the Arabian Sea was evident in all simulations for present-day climate, which was associated with a too weak simulation of the low-level Somali jet in May. A consistent advanced onset of the monsoon was found only over the Arabian Sea in the projections, where the advanced onset of the monsoon was accompanied by an increase of rainfall and an anomalous anticyclone over the northern Indian Ocean. In all the models except FGOALS-g2, the enhanced low-level Somali jet transported more water vapor to the Arabian Sea, whereas in FGOALS-g2 the enhanced rainfall was determined more by the increased wind convergence. Furthermore, and again in all models except FGOALS-g2, the equatorial SST warming, with maximum increase over the eastern Pacific, enhanced convection in the central West Pacific and reduced convection over the eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent region, which drove the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western Indian Ocean. In contrast, in FGOALS-g2, there was minimal （near-zero） warming of projected SST in the central equatorial Pacific, with decreased convection in the central West Pacific and enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent. The broader-scale differences among the models across the Pacific were related to both the differences in the projected SST pattern and in the present-day simulations.

摘要：The possible changes of tropical cyclone（TC） tracks and their influence on the future basin-wide intensity of TCs over the western North Pacific（WNP） are examined based on the projected large-scale environments derived from a selection of CMIP5（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5） models. Specific attention is paid to the performance of the CMIP5 climate models in simulating the large-scale environment for TC development over the WNP. A downscaling system including individual models for simulating the TC track and intensity is used to select the CMIP5 models and to simulate the TC activity in the *** assessment of the future track and intensity changes of TCs is based on the projected large-scale environment in the21 st century from a selection of nine CMIP5 climate models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5（RCP4.5）scenario. Due to changes in mean steering flows, the influence of TCs over the South China Sea area is projected to decrease,with an increasing number of TCs taking a northwestward track. Changes in prevailing tracks and their contribution to basin-wide intensity change show considerable inter-model variability. The influences of changes in prevailing track make a marked contribution to TC intensity change in some models, tending to counteract the effect of SST warming. This study suggests that attention should be paid to the simulated large-scale environment when assessing the future changes in regional TC activity based on climate models. In addition, the change in prevailing tracks should be considered when assessing future TC intensity change.

摘要：This paper extends the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational assimilation method(DRP-4DVar) by adding a nonlinear correction process,thereby forming the DRP-4DVar with a nonlinear correction, which shall hereafter be referred to as the NC-DRP-4DVar. A preliminary test is conducted using the Lorenz-96 model in one single-window experiment and several multiple-window experiments. The results of the single-window experiment show that compared with the adjoint-based traditional 4DVar, the final convergence of the cost function for the NC-DRP-4DVar is almost the same as that using the traditional 4DVar, but with much less computation. Furthermore, the 30-window assimilation experiments demonstrate that the NC-DRP-4DVar can alleviate the linearity approximation error and reduce the root mean square error significantly.

摘要：This study presents a development of an advanced cyberbased database-enabled design module for low- rise buildings （DEDM-LR） which provides estimation of the wind-induced responses for main wind force resisting frames by making direct use of pressure time histories measured at a large number of pressure taps over a suite of building models. These responses may be considered in lieu of code-specified load effects in which the overall accuracy may be influenced by the inherent simplifications in codes. In addition, this new automated approach is particularly attractive and advantageous as it allows a web-based online analysis/design via intuitive user-friendly interfaces for both the input and output in terms of familiar web-style forms that are nowadays very common in most of web-based services. Presently, the DEDM-LR hosts an aerodynamic database developed by the Tokyo Polytechnic University （TPU）, Japan for a variety of building configurations like flat, gable, and hip roofs under suburban terrain flow condition with immediate application to other databases. The paper shows the efficacy and validity of the DEDM-LR by walking through its details and examples on selected gable-roofed buildings. The architecture of DEDM-LR platform offers the ability to pool resources by hosting other databases that may become available in the near future.

摘要：This study investigated the impact of different verification-area designs on the sensitive areas identified using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） method for tropical cyclone targeted *** sensitive areas identified using the first singular vector （FSV） method,which is the linear approximation of CNOP,were also investigated for *** analyzing the validity of the sensitive areas,the proper design of a verification area was *** cyclone Rananim,which occurred in August 2004 in the northwest Pacific Ocean,was *** sets of verification areas were designed;one changed position,and the other changed both size and *** CNOP and its identified sensitive areas were found to be less sensitive to small variations of the verification areas than those of the FSV and its sensitive *** larger variations of the verification area,the CNOP and the FSV as well as their identified sensitive areas changed *** terms of reducing forecast errors in the verification area,the CNOP-identified sensitive areas were more beneficial than those identified using *** design of the verification area is important for cyclone *** verification area should be designed with a proper size according to the possible locations of the cyclone obtained from the ensemble forecast *** addition,the development trend of the cyclone analyzed from its dynamic mechanisms was another *** the general position of the verification area was determined,a small variation in size or position had little influence on the results of CNOP.

摘要：Projections of future precipitation change over China are studied based on the output of a global AGCM, ECHAM5, with a high resolution of T319 （equivalent to 40 km）. Evaluation of the model’s performance in simulating present-day precipitation shows encouraging results. The spatial distributions of both mean and extreme precipitation, especially the locations of main precipitation centers, are reproduced reasonably. The simulated annual cycle of precipitation is close to the observed. The performance of the model over eastern China is generally better than that over western China. A weakness of the model is the overestimation of precipitation over northern and western China. Analyses on the potential change in precipitation projected under the A1B scenario show that both annual mean precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation would increase significantly over southeastern China. The percentage increase in extreme precipitation is larger than that of mean precipitation. Meanwhile, decreases in mean and extreme precipitation are evident over the southern Tibetan Plateau. For precipitation days, extreme precipitation days are projected to increase over all of China. Both consecutive dry days over northern China and consecutive wet days over southern China would decrease.